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| Ron Santo - Hall of Fame or not Hall of Fame? |
| 06.19.04 (7:25 pm) [edit] |
Ok, I went to see This Old Cub and it got me wondering about numbers and the Hall of Fame and everything else.
I am biased coming into this and believe Santo should be in the Hall, but figured I would actually grind some numbers and see why he isn't there yet.
Single season career highs:
Runs: 107
Hits: 187
EBH: 76
HR: 33
RBI: 123
Ok, these all seem pretty "normal". So then, what would happen if these numbers were all put into the equivalent "Year 2000" numbers?
Runs: 134
Hits: 233
EBH: 95
HR: 41
RBI: 153
...they aren't all from the same season, but any one of those numbers would be eye popping.
What about career numbers if "normalized" to Year 2000? (I dropped fractions and rounded off stuff to one decimal place)
Hits: 2704 HR: 410 RBI: 1597
This moves him up halfway on the HR leaderboard to 36th, on the RBI board to 26th from 74th, He would also be 37th for extra base hits rather than 93rd.
What hurts Santo:
1 - He never was in the playoffs and has a "reputation" due to 1969.
2 - He never played for a New York team (which has a very real effect on election to the Hall)
3 - None of his unadjusted numbers are eye-popping. They are from a pitcher's era.
4 - He is followed by Mike Schmidt 5-6 years later who is the best thirdbaseman in modern history.
So, there are negatives. Also "negative" are that his numbers would not be in the top 60-70% of the members of the HoF. This means digging out Bill James' vaunted Ken Keltner test to see how Santo stacks up...
1 - Was he the best player in baseball at any time?
*No. There were other players clearly better.
2 - Was he the best player on his team?
*From 1964-1967, clearly yes. In 68-70, he was second best behind Billy WIlliams.
3 - Was he the best player in his league at his position?
*Yes, from 1963-1970. The only argument for "better" would be the Orioles' Robinson, but BR's argument is on defense only.
4 - Was he the best at his position in all of ball?
*An iffy argument with BR. But Santo had more speed and more offensive pop than Robinson did. Robinson was the best defensive 3b of the era.
5 - Did he have an impact on any pennant races?
*Yes, in 69 and 70. In '69 he set his career high for RBIs. IN 70 he was beginning the decline phase of his career.
6 - Was he good enough he could continue his career after passing his prime?
* For only 2-3 years. If only on the numbers, a big debit, but when taking into account his '71 revelation of suffering diabetes, this provides an "excuse" for the steep decline.
7 - Is he the best player not currently in the Hall?
*No. Sandberg was better. But he is clearly 2nd behind RS.
8 - Are most players of comparable stats in the Hall?
*No. But most comparable stats are for players from other positions, not 3b. His stats are comparable to all 3b except Schmidt.
9 - Is he the best at his position not in the Hall?
*Absolutely.
10 - Are his career totals similar to other HoF players?
* He would not be at the bottom. Clearly lower-middle part of the HoF for stats.
11 - Is there evidence he was better/worse than his stats suggest?
* He played in a clear pitcher's era. His diabetes hampered eyesight and how he handled the grind of a whole season.
12 - DId he have any MVP seasons? If not, was he ever close?
*No MVP seasons, but finished in the voting 4 times.
13 - How many All-Star seasons did he have? SHould he have had others? Is this comparable to others already in the HoF?
9 All-star appearances, he should've made it in 67, but not in 71 or 73. It is comparable except to Schmidt.
14 - If this guy was a team's best player, would it be likely the team would win a pennant?
*It is possible. It certainly could have been the case in 69 and 70.
All right...I guess that's all my hot air on this. I used to think Santo belonged in the Hall but had lingering doubts. I'm convinced now that Santo is a Hall of Famer.
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| Summertime |
| 06.02.04 (7:59 pm) [edit] |
It's good to be summer. Got a business prospectus written for people who may be interested in investing in Jolly Roger.
Got the D+D Activity Book at the printer's and two more card games at the artist. The two currently finished in Europe are on slow boats to the US. Life is good.
I'm sun-burned for all crap and in pain--but have played a lot of catch and baseball with the kids. They've had fun and today we even went out for lunch to eat. Things may go wrong in life, but the love you get from kids...
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